EU Agri-Food Policy at a Crossroads - Strategic Considerations on the EU Vision for Agriculture and Food

Here’s a snapshot of the key trends we explore in more detail in our longer note:

• New initiatives on limiting dependency on protein imports and imported fertilisers and other inputs as well as sharpened implementation of sustainability clauses could fuel trade tensions at a time when these are already considerable.

• Similarly, mirror clauses imposing EU production methods on third countries - and going further than present maximum residue levels banning imports of any foods produced using pesticides banned in the EU - are likely to cause tensions internationally under the Codex Alimentarius and potentially breach WTO rules. This could also create scope for disputes when EU exports of agrifood products are significant.

• A ban on exports of such prohibited pesticides will hit third-country producers and , rather than stopping production of such substances, potentially simply move it abroad with a potential new blow to the European industry.

• Concerning the role of farmers in the supply chain, the review of the Unfair Trading Practices Directive is already in part anticipated in the Vision, and a proposal might come earlier than foreseen.

• The Vision points to prohibiting retailers and manufacturers from paying less than farmers’ costs of production. Potentially this may drive up food inflation and drive buyers to sources outside the EU.

• New initiatives on soil health and reducing chemical fertiliser use will impact farmers and fertiliser companies, but also present new opportunities for biological alternatives.

• Newly adopted rules on food waste will be pursued, following the agreement on the Waste Framework Directive on food waste with unclarity on how voluntary they are.

• The Vision promotes the use of innovative technology and AI in agriculture. However, it remains unclear where a CAP under resource pressure will find the money for this initiative.

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