Outcomes and impacts of European elections in Sweden

By: Gustaf Fritz, Associate Manager at Rud Pedersen Public Affairs Sweden

Key outcomes of the European Election in Sweden can be summarised in 7 key points:

1. The Right-wing coalition declined, going against the trend in EU.
Most notable was decline for the far-right party Sweden Democrats (SD) seeing, for the first time since they formed in 1988, their share of the vote decline in a national election, and on this occasion overtaken by the Green Party (MP) as the third largest party. A shift that goes against the trend in many other EU member states. The right-wing coalition that currently are governing will most likely recover quickly.

2. The opposition grew, but only with one seat and several of the mandates risk being moved to the sidelines.
The election was a success for the red-green opposition. However, of Sweden’s 21 mandates only 1 shifted. The mandate went from the Cristian Democrats (KD) to the Left party (V). This shift of mandate risks reducing the influence of Swedish parliamentarians since the Left Group is expected to have marginal influence in the next term. Also, MP which is now the third largest party risk a decline in influence as a result of the Green groups decline in mandates.

3. Sweden saw a setback in voter turnout.
SD's declining share of the vote can partially be explained by the party’s failure to mobilise its voter base. Sweden saw a decline in voter turnout with five percent, meaning that Sweden went against another trend in EU-election.

4. Will the two liberal parties be able to bury their hatchets?
Center Party (C) and The Liberals (L) may have successfully defended their mandates, however when their parliamentarians return to Brussels, it will be to the wounded political group Renew. The relationship between both parties is damaged after the election campaign but they will need to repair it quickly if they want to keep their influence in Renew. Both parties will try to put a strong emphasis on sustainability and human rights issues during next mandate.

5. Several Swedish parliamentarians are believed to be targeting committee seats in ENVI and LIBE.
The fact that voters’ key concerns were peace, democracy, and the climate, which were deemed significantly more important than, for example, the economy, can lead to parliamentarians choosing to prioritise those committees where these issues are handled over committees dealing with economic affairs or budgets.

6. Swedish Prime Minister will give support to Von Der Leyen in her candidacy.
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M) on election night called for broad cooperation among Swedish MEPs to safeguard Swedish interests in the EU, such as free trade, the internal market and competitiveness.

7. SD and KD open for collaboration with the party group ID.
The two parties have stated that they are open for collaboration with ID in parliament on some topics. However, both parties rule out that this would include foreign affairs or any Russian-related topic. Meanwhile M that received the most votes in the government coalition are not likely to open for any collaboration with ID.

Summary:
During the next term, competitiveness will be a high priority for both the government and private sector. However, it remains to be seen whether the government will be responsive to the business sector and prioritise a continued ambitious climate policy.

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