Key highlights of the 2024 National and European Elections in Bulgaria

Key takeaways
Bulgaria’s center-right GERB party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, emerged as the frontrunner in the parliamentary elections but will need to secure at least two coalition partners to form a government. Two nationalistic far-right parties entered the national parliament with one being a brand new player. The elections were marked by voter dissatisfaction (low turnout reflects widespread dissatisfaction and a shift towards far-right parties), highlighted the need for urgent reforms needed (urgent reforms are necessary, including addressing structural economic problems with a long-term perspective, securing working solutions for judiciary system reforms, and ensuring stable governance to unlock and utilise EU funds effectively), and brought up the need for economic development (a focus on economic and judicial reforms, energy, green and digital transformation, and consistent policy implementation is essential).

Background
This marked Bulgaria's fifth EP election since joining the EU in 2007, with the country recording its second lowest-ever turnout at 34%.

With Bulgarians voting for the sixth time in early elections in just three years, there are concerns over voter fatigue and disillusionment with politicians who are perceived to have failed to progress with pressing reforms.

National results
The national vote was triggered by the collapse in March of a coalition comprising GERB and the We continue the change – Democratic Bulgaria (WCC – DB), former coalition partners and biggest political rivals.

The centre-right Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party wоn both the national and European elections with a convincing lead of 24.7%, but it will need at least two coalition partners to form a government.

The Movement for Rights and Freedom (MRF) received 17.1% of the votes, while WCC-DB secured 14.3%, a significant drop from their 24.56% in April 2023. The Pro-Russian nationalist Vazrazhdane (Revival) party received 13.8%. The right-wing parties ITN (6%) and the new party Velichie (4.7%) also entered Parliament, with Velichie surprising many by capturing a similar far-right niche as Vazrazhdane.

European results
There is no significant difference between the outcome of the early national and European elections. The turnout for the European elections was 33.4%, one percent higher than the national elections, but still relatively low. Bulgaria will be represented by 17 MPs in the European Parliament.

The election results show that GERB will send five MEPs to the EPP group, with another MEP coming from the WCC-DB.

Renew Europe will have five MEPs – three from the MRF and two from the coalition WCC-DB. The Pro-Russian Vazrazhdane (Revival) party is won three seats with its, anti-European line. In addition, the Bulgarian Socialist Party will send two MEPs to S&D group, while one ITN MEP does not yet have a political family.

For Bulgarian MEPs in the next EU Parliament, forming coalitions within various European political groups will be crucial. This approach will enable Bulgaria to advocate effectively for policies that are important for both the country and the broader EU interests, grounded in practical and business-driven reasoning.

Bulgaria in the European Parliament
The recent election results in Bulgaria reveal voter fatigue from repeated elections over the past three years, causing governance paralysis and a lack of long-term development vision. Low turnout reflects dissatisfaction with current leaders and a shift towards far-right parties, which lack strategies for economic development, social policy, and EU integration. The simultaneous national and European elections overwhelmed voters with national rhetoric and scandals, overshadowing broader issues.

The clear message from voters is that Bulgaria urgently needs a stable government committed to long-term reforms and the rule of law. The future government must facilitate the flow of EU funds to unlock and enhance economic potential. Currently, Bulgaria has implemented only 7% of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), compared to the EU average of 18%. Due to delays in legislative reforms, the country will seek renegotiation for 36 investments and 10 reforms.

Bulgarian politicians must deepen public debate on addressing economic structural problems through consistent reforms and investments. Ensuring sustainable public finances and a stable investment environment is a priority. The Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) is crucial for green and digital economic transformation, with EU funds vital for sectors like energy, healthcare, and agriculture. After 17 years in the EU, Bulgaria needs to defend its positions more ambitiously in the European Parliament and Council, especially amid current geopolitical tensions. With 17 MEPs, Bulgaria must strategically position its representatives across EP committees to effectively advocate for national and EU interests.

EU Trends
In the new European Parliament, 100 non-attached members with radical views are seeking political groups, presenting challenges for established parties. While the EU election results have had a greater impact on individual countries than the European Parliament itself, Bulgaria, Belgium, Romania, and France now prioritize forming new national governments. These new governments will shape the future Council and influence the dialogue between the European Commission, Parliament, and Council.

To learn more about our Bulgarian expertise, contact Managing Partner of our Sofia office, Gergana Aneva.