Business leaders are too passive

By Olav Vaksvik Hansen, Analyst, Rud Pedersen Public Affairs Norway
Article first appears in KOM24, 12-05-2024, translated here 16-05-2024.

In November 2022, NHO, Virke, Finans Norge and the Shipping Association conducted a survey among their members.

The result was startling; 80% of the members believed that the government pursued policies which takes into account the needs of companies to a very small or minor extent. If we look at today's election polls, there is little indication that the picture has improved.

The interaction between business and the state is of great importance when it comes to innovation and value creation.

The state essentially lays down both the guidelines and the rules of the game that the business world must comply with. This topic was raised once again at the annual conference of NHO earlier this year.

Today's conditions do not seem to be satisfactory for the industry.

If businesses want to influence the authorities to change course, they must play a greater role and actively contribute to change. With the need for fair and predictable framework conditions, there are definitely big gains to be made.

It is possible that the business world, through membership in interest organisations, will think that they are already using the mouthpieces they have.

However, organisations have many considerations to attend to. What tools do business leaders have at their disposal if they want to contribute actively to the design of future policy?

POLITICALLY AWARE LEADERS WIN
In the coming time, political parties will be busy shaping their party programs which will form the basis for the election campaign in 2025. This is an important phase where stakeholders have the opportunity to influence the parties' future policies.

Businesses are therefore faced with a unique opportunity to promote their views. With the dissatisfaction we see, it is legitimate to ask whether the business world has really made use of the opportunities to influence to a large enough extent in the past.

When the party programs have been drawn up, the cards are distributed. It is therefore crucial that politically aware leaders use the opportunity and voice their views before the program work is completed.

When the election results are clear and government negotiations begin, the game has already been set.

During the negotiations, the parties will fight for core issues from their own program and there are many considerations that are assessed against each other.

That is why input into the program process is incredibly important, because all the issues raised will be part of the toolbox during the election campaign and in the negotiations.

CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT?
Today's governing parties do poorly in the polls and it would be surprising if they regained public trust in 2025.

Who occupies the government offices after the election may be decisive for business, but there are opportunities to spread the risk.

Several possible constellations open up towards 2025.

The Conservative Party has traditionally taken the role of the unifying party on the bourgeois side.

The Frp, for its part, will mainly wish to cooperate only with the Conservative Party. The Liberal Party will have similar reservations against a collaboration with the Frp. A significant factor of uncertainty for a unified bourgeois government is the KrF's ability to cross the blocking border.

At the same time, it may appear that a bourgeois majority government will not be dependent on KrF. We can also envision a minority government. This would probably be ideal for both Frp and Venstre, as they can fight their battles openly in Parliament instead of in closed negotiations within the government.

The barrier limit can also become an important factor on the red-green side where the MDG is on the verge.

The Labor Party and the Center Party are struggling, while SV and Rødt can boast solid polls. It would be very surprising to see the current government emerge victorious from next year's election, but we should still not underestimate the red-greens' ability to rally to what could be a broad majority government in 2025.

During the 2017 election, we saw a similar situation.

The bourgeois government was condemned to death - but still won, then with a new constellation.

It is by no means inconceivable that we can now have a red-green rerun, but that the current government constellation with only Ap and Sp will last is extremely unlikely.

HIT WIDE AND START NOW
The election result will determine which constellations may become relevant, but if the business community wants a say in the team, they must put in the effort already now.

Whether there will be a bourgeois or red-green government is highly uncertain, and it may be more even than many think.

If the actors in the business sector desire predictability, better framework conditions, and stability, this necessitates broad political engagement.

Diversifying engagement across political parties will also contribute to understanding and knowledge of current issues and needs. There is much to gain here, but businesses must understand the value of a more active approach and actually utilize the opportunities already available.

Politically aware leadership creates competitive advantages in business strategy – but it requires targeted and immediate action.

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